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The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis |
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Written by Prof. Dr. Joachim Willms [Managing Director]
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The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis
Few countries expected to experience catastrophic impacts from sea level rise
Authors:
S. Dasgupta; B. Laplante; C. Meisner; D. Wheeler; J. Yan
Publisher:
Policy Research Working Papers, World Bank, 2006
This
paper assess the consequences of continued sea level rise (SLR) for 84
developing countries divided by region. The aim of this research was to
produce a baseline estimate of the impacts of SLR that can be used by
policymakers and international development institutions when allocating
resources for adaptation to climate change. The following indicators
were used to assess SLR impacts:
- land area affected
- population affected
- gross domestic product (GDP) changes
- urban impact (based on area)
- agricultural impact (based on area)
- wetlands (based on area)
The
paper reveals that potential impact of SLR will be skewed, with only a
small proportion of countries, such as Bahamas, Vietnam, and Arab
Republic of Egypt experiencing catastrophic impacts although for many
others the absolute magnitude of impacts will also be large. Despite
this skew it is estimated that within this century, hundreds of
millions of people are likely to be displaced by SLR, which will lead
to severe economic and ecological damage.
The final part of the
paper recommends that international resource allocation strategies
should recognise the skewed impact distribution in order to allocate
aid according to the degree of threat. Nevertheless, immediate planning
for adaptation is imperative. Full text of document |